2 USING ATCF FOR TC FORECASTING TASKS

This section deals with the use of ATCF to accomplish everyday TC forecasting tasks. Most of the information in this section is gleaned from JTWC’s Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs), which are referenced where applicable.

2.1 Displaying and Printing Streamline Charts

This information is adapted from JTWC Equipment Standard Operating Procedure (ESOP) #02 and deals specifically with the procedure for printing JTWC’s Area of Responsibility (AOR) chart with associated data to the plotter. The procedure is, however, easily adaptable to printing any chart/graphic from ATCF.

1. Click on select map in the Sidebar. The Choose Area dialog will be displayed.

   

   Selecting the AOR Plotter Map

2. Select AOR Plotter and click OK. The AOR Plotter area will then be displayed in the map window.

3. In the menu bar at the top of the window, click on Fields. A drop-down menu will be displayed.

4. Select Display Raw Data… from the drop-down menu. A Choose Data Types dialog will be displayed.

   

   Choose Data Type(s) Dialog

5. Select the field data from the list below. To select all items in one of these lists, hold down the Ctrl key and click each item individually. Selected items will be highlighted.

   • For200 MB WindCharts:
   • AC_obs_21001ft_31000ft_
   • AC_obs_31001ft_41000ft_
   • IR_winds_100mb_200mb_
   • IR_winds_201mb_400mb_
   • WV_winds_100mb_200mb_
   • WV_winds_201mb_400mb_
   • UA_obs_200mb_
   • UA_obs_250mb_
   • UA_obs_300mb_

    

   • For Surface/Gradient wind charts:
   • AC_obs_0ft_5000ft_
   • IR_winds_801mb_1000mb_
   • SCT_surface_winds_
   • SYN_obs_
   • VIS_winds_801mb_1000mb_
   • UA_obs_850mb_
   • UA_obs_925mb_

6. Once the items to be displayed for a given chart are highlighted, click Display. The data will now be displayed in the map window.

7. Click OK to close the Choose Data Type(s) dialog.

8. To remove a field already displayed, click on Fields in the menu bar and then Display Raw Data… in the drop-down menu to open the Choose Data Type(s dialog. Click on the field(s) to be removed (hold down Ctrl to choose multiple fields) and then click on Remove to remove the selected fields from the display.

9. To print the chart to the plotter, select File from the menu bar and then Print Graphic to Plotter from the File menu.

2.2 Starting a Storm

This procedure is adapted from JTWC ESOP 02 and JTWC TDO SOP 07.

1. Click on Manage-Storms in the Menu Bar above the map window. The Start a Storm dialog will be displayed:

   

   Start a Storm Dialog

2. Under Sub Basin click the down arrow to select the Basin that the invest is in.

3. Under Storm Number select the next 90 series storm invest number acquired while entering the storm on the SATOPS Invest # Page (https://2058.5.40.24/investat.htm).

4. Enter the Latitude and Longitude of the current position. The N/S/E/W will change according to which basin is selected, but double check to make sure.

5. Enter the estimated sustained wind speed in the Intensity box. Invests are started at 15 knots.

6. Click OK.

7. Responsibilities: For suspect areas east of 140°W and north of the equator (NEPAC), the NOAA Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) is the official tropical cyclone warning agency for opening and numbering suspect areas and tropical cyclones, as well as for upkeep of NRL microwave image invest windows. For suspect areas between 180° and 140°W and north of the equator (CPAC), the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) is the official tropical cyclone warning agency for opening and numbering suspect areas and tropical cyclones. For suspect areas west of the dateline (180°) and north of the equator and all suspect areas south of the equator, JTWC is responsible for opening and numbering suspect areas and tropical cyclones, as well as the upkeep of NRL invest windows. JTWC, TPC/NHC, and CPHC will adhere to the following guidelines for initiating suspect areas.

   1. JTWC is responsible for opening and maintaining/closing invests west of the dateline (180°) and north of the equator and for all invests south of the equator.

   2. TPC/NHC (NEPAC) or CPHC (CPAC) will (should) notify JTWC via telephone when they open a suspect (invest) area in the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (ATCF) system, and provide the 90-series number, latitude, longitude, and intensity of the suspect area. TPC/NHC or CPHC is then responsible for updating the best track of the suspect area at least twice daily (00Z and 12Z). The respective agency should be called if the area is not updated at a minimum of every 12 hours.

   3. If JTWC desires to start a suspect (invest) area, the TDO will notify TPC/NHC (NEPAC) or CPHC (CPAC) and request that they open an invest. If the respective agency refuses and the TDO still believes an invest should be opened, the TDO should request the next 90-series number and notify the TPC/NHC or CPHC that they will be opening the invest. This should also be followed by a call to JTOPs. JTWC is then responsible for updating the best track and prompting the NRL and FNMOC TC web pages via the ATCF system. In the event that the invest develops and approaches warning criteria it is expected that the agency responsible for the AOR in question will eventually assume best track responsibility from JTWC prior to the first warning/advisory. Since these are guidelines only, the TDO should verify best track responsibility with NHC/CPHC for each system. Frequent communication is crucial.

   4. When an area is no longer suspect for development, the agency responsible for updating the best track will notify the other agency that termination of the suspect area is intended. However, if the agency being notified does not want the suspect area to be terminated, then that agency will assume responsibility for updating the best track. Make an entry in the TDO e-log reflecting the PHONECON agreement. Frequent communication among agencies is necessary to avoid confusion regarding status of an invest or what agency has re-besting responsibility.

2.3 Opening a Storm Window

This procedure is adapted from JTWC ESOP 02.

1. Either open the File menu in the Menu Bar and select Select Map OR click on Select Map in the Sidebar. The Choose Area dialog will then be displayed:

   

   Choose Area Dialog

2. Select the area to be displayed. For JTWC, the AOR+ area is preferred.

3. Click OK.

4. Either open the File menu in the Menu Bar and select Select Storm or click on Select Storm in the Sidebar. The Choose a Storm dialog will be displayed:

   

   Choose a Storm Dialog

5. Choose a storm from the dialog and click OK. The storm will then be displayed in its proper location on the selected map in the map window.

6. You can zoom in on the storm by either opening the Tools menu from the Menu Bar and selecting Zoom In or by clicking Zoom In in the Sidebar. Using either method, a yellow prompt in the map window will tell you to click and drag to select the zoom area. Clicking and dragging creates a “rubber-band” box on the map that allows you to select the area to zoom in on. When you let go of the mouse button, the map will be zoomed to the selected area. You can undo the zoom by clicking Zoom Out, or return to the full map display by clicking Full Map.

2.4 Viewing Satellite/Microwave Imagery

This procedure is adapted from JTWC ESOP 02.

There are two different ways to display imagery in the storm window:

1. Open the Fixes menu from the menu bar and select View Fix Data. The View Fix Data dialog that then appears allows you to select which fix data are displayed and how they are displayed, and also to select satellite imagery to overlay on the fix data.

   

   View Fix Data Dialog

   You can select the fix(es) to view by selecting its DTG in the box and selecting the +/- range for the DTG in the box next to it. You can also select whether to display Conf Circles and/or Wind Radii, whether to Autolabel the fixes, and whether to Highlight Fixes in the selected time range. In the selection list on the right side, you can select satellite and/or microwave imagery to overlay on the fix. It should be noted that displaying the imagery may take some time, as the imagery is pulled from NRL.

2. Open the Track menu from the Menu Bar and select Re-Best. The Re-Best Track Dialog will appear:

   

   Re-Best Track Dialog

   In the DTG of position list box, select the desired time frame. On the right-hand side the Associated Imagery list will then contain the list of imagery applicable to the selected time frame. Double-click on the desired image and it will appear in the Storm Window. Click Cancel when done to exit without changing the best track data.

2.5 Removing Satellite/Microwave Imagery

You can easily remove imagery from the display by scrolling down in the Sidebar on the left side of the screen and clicking satellite imagery. This will remove any imagery currently displayed.

2.6 Entering Microwave Fixes

This procedure is adapted from JTWC ESOP 02.

1. In the Storm Window, open the Fixes menu in the Menu Bar. Select Enter Fix Data from the drop-down menu. The Enter Fixes dialog will be displayed:

   

   Enter Fixes Dialog

2. Click on Microwave – SSMI, TRMM…. The Microwave Fix Data dialog will be displayed:

   

   Microwave Fix Data Dialog

3. Select Center Fix in the top row of check boxes.

4. Enter the DTG (YYYYMMDDHHMM) in the specified format (e.g. 201007122341) (Note: The year, month, and day initially populate based on the current Zulu DTG in ATCF. Double-check to make sure your Zulu date is correct – this especially applies to fixes entered around or after 00Z).

5. Enter the Latitude and Longitude of the fix in three digits to the nearest tenty of a degree — include the decimal.

6. Ensure the correct hemispheres are selected next to the Lat and Lon boxes.

7. Select the Confidence (PCN) value based on the Poor/Fair/Good decision matrix below:

   PCN	Confidence
   1 or 2	GOOD
   3 or 4	FAIR
   5 or 6	POOR

8. Enter the Satellite Type based on the satellite type you entered in “SC-Sensor” on the fix entry worksheet. See table below for a summary of the different satellite types and how they would be entered on the worksheet and in ATCF:

   Satellite Name	Microwave Name	Work Sheet	ATCF
   DMSP F-12 – F-15	SSMI	D-S	SSMI
   DMSP F-16 – F-17	SSMI/S	DS-S	SSMS
   NOAA	AMSU-B	N-S	AMSU
   TRMM	TMI	T-S	TRMM
   NASA AQUA/TERRA	AMSRE	A-S	AMSR
   CORIOLIS	WINDSAT	W-S	WIND
   NOAA-18 and METOPA	AMSU-B	MM-S	MMHS
   WINDSCAT		WNDSCT	WSCT
   QUICKSCAT		Q-S	QSCT
   ASCAT		ASCT	ASCT

9. In the Comments box, enter any clarifying data (if necessary). Data may include the sensor frequency used if different frequencies were available (e.g. 37H, or 85H). If only one frequency is available leave the Comments box blank.

10. In the Fix Site list box, select the correct site (for JTWC, use PGTW, for KNES, use KNES).

11. Enter initials (for KNES fixes, no initials are required).

12. Click OK to complete the fix entry procedure.

13. Click OK to close the Enter Fixes dialog.

2.7 Entering Subjective Satellite Fixes

This procedure is adapted from JTWC ESOP 02.

1. In the Storm Window, open the Fixes menu from the Menu Bar and select Enter Fix Data. The Enter Fixes dialog will be displayed.

2. Click on Satellite – Subj Dvorak. The Satellite (Subj. Dvorak) Fix Data dialog will be displayed:

   

   Satellite (Subj. Dvorak) Fix Data Dialog

3. Ensure that Center Fix is selected for all subjective fixes and Max Wind Speed Fix is also selected for Dvorak estimates.

4. Enter the DTG (YYYYMMDDHHMN) in the specified format (e.g. 201007122341) (Note: The year, month, and day initially populate based on the current Zulu DTG in ATCF. Double-check to make sure your Zulu date is correct – this especially applies to fixes entered around or after 00Z). For KNES fixes be sure to change the N position to a ‘3’ to help distinguish from PGTW fixes.

5. Enter the Latitude and Longitude. Ensure that the correct hemispheres are selected.

6. Select the PCN ratio button. Enter the PCN or CONF by clicking the down-arrow and selecting 1-6.

7. Enter the Satellite Type by clicking on the down arrow and selecting the satellite type, e.g. MTSAT or MET7.

8. Enter the Dvorak Code – Long Term Trend:

   1. Enter the Final T-Number by clicking on the down arrow and selecting the desired number. The CI Number will automatically adjust to the same number. If the system is weakening, be sure to change the CI Number.

   2. Select the correct radio button in the Past Change row: Developed, Steady, or Weakened.

   3. Enter the Amount of T-Num Change by clicking on the down arrow and selecting the desired number.

   4. Enter the Hours since previous eval (usually 24).

9. Enter the Dvorak Code – Short Term Trend:

   1. Select the correct radio button in the Past Change row: Developed, Steady, or Weakened.

   2. Enter the Amount of T-Num Change by clicking on the down arrow and selecting the desired number.

   3. Enter the Hours since previous eval (usually 6).

10. Change the Fix Type to LLCC by clicking on the down arrow button and selecting LLCC from the list.

11. Select the Sensor Type according to the kind of satellite used (i.e. if you used VIS select Visual, if you used IR select Infrared, and if you used Microwave select Microwave). Note that multiple selections are allowed (i.e., you can select both Visual and Infrared if both were used).

12. Select Tropical, SubTropical, or ExtraTropical depending on the type of the system being fixed on.

13. Add any Comments that may be necessary (i.e. Wrap amount, etc).

14. For JTWC, select PGTW for the Fix Site by clicking the down arrow and selecting PGTW from the list. If entering KNES fixes manually, select KNES.

15. Enter Initials (not required for KNES fixes).

16. Click on the OK button.

17. Click on the OK button to exit the Enter Fixes dialog.

2.8 Entering Radar Fixes

This procedure is adapted from JTWC ESOP 02.

1. In the Storm Window, open the Fixes menu from the Menu Bar and select Enter Fix Data from the drop-down menu. The Enter Fixes dialog will be displayed.

2. Click on Radar… and a Radar Fix Data dialog will be displayed:

   

   Radar Fix Data Dialog

3. Click on the Center Fix checkbox.

4. Enter DTG (YYYYMMDDHHMN) in the specified format. Note: the year, month and day initially populate based on the current Zulu DTG in ATCF. Double check to make sure your Zulu date is correct – this especially applies to fixes entered around or after 00Z.

5. Enter the Latitude and Longitude of the fix. The N/S/E/W will already be selected for you, but double-check to be positive that they are correct.

6. Select the correct Accuracy, Good, Fair, or Poor, in accordance with the bulletin.

7. Select Radar Fix Type; in most cases this should be Land.

8. Enter the WMO Identifier found in the bulletin, e.g. RCWF.

9. In the Enter Fix as line, select RADOB Code.

10. Click OK. A Radar – RADOB dialog will pop up, in which you will enter the RADOB code from the bulletin:

    

    Radar – RADOB Dialog

11. Add any comments (not required).

12. No initials are required for radar fixes.

13. Click OK.

14. Clilck OK to close the Enter Fixes dialog.

2.9 Importing Fixes

This procedure is adapted from JTWC ESOP 02. This procedure should be followed after every fix cycle to import PGTW and SAB (KNES) fixes.

1. In the Storm Window, open the Fixes menu and select Import Fixes from the drop-down menu.

2. A Fix Record Edit dialog will appear:

   

   Fix Record Edit Dialog

3. Click OK. A window will appear showing any fixes that have been imported, or none if there were none available. Close this. Then select OK on the Fix Record Edit dialog.

2.10 Making Fix Labels

This procedure is adapted from JTWC ESOP 02.

1. Either open the Fixes menu in the Menu Bar and select Fix Labels, or click on the Fix Labels item in the Sidebar. Whichever method you use, a Fix Label dialog will then be displayed. Select the desired fix and then click Position Label. A “rubber band” dashed line attached to the fix will be displayed in the map window. Click and drag the end of the line to the desired position and release the mouse button; the label will then be displayed with a line tying it to the fix position.

     

   Placing a Fix Label

2. If the positioning of the label (or any fix label) is not to your liking, you can delete the label using the same Fix Label Dialog window by selecting the desired fix and clicking Delete Label. You can also delete all fix labels by clicking on fix labels in the Sidebar.

3. When labeling is complete, click OK to exit the Fix Label Dialog.

4. You can also label the most recent microwave and subjective fixes automatically using the autolabel capability. Open the Fixes menu from the Menu Bar and select Display Fixes. In the Display Fixes by Site dialog that appears, click on the Autolabel check box. Then click OK. The positioning of labels by this method is not as appealing as self-made labels, because they are normally bunched together and therefore difficult to read.

2.11 Editing Fix Data

This procedure is adapted from JTWC ESOP 02.

1. Open the Fixes menu from the Menu Bar and select Edit Fix Data from the drop-down menu. The Choose a Fix Data Set dialog will be displayed.

2. Select the desired storm and click OK. A Fix Record Edit dialog will open. Select the desired fix from the list and click Edit Record. The appropriate data entry dialog for the selected fix type will be displayed.

3. Change any information that needs to be changed and click OK.

4. You can also use the Fix Record Edit dialog to delete a fix record (e.g. in the case of a duplicate record). Select the record to be deleted and click Delete Record.

5. Click OK to close the Fix Record Edit dialog.

2.12 Re-Besting

This procedure is adapted from JTWC ESOP 02.

At each synoptic hour (00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z) the on watch Satellite Analyst will update the track for suspect areas designated as POOR, or invest only.

1. In the Storm Window open the Track menu from the menu bar and select Re-Best… from the drop-down menu. A Re-Best Track dialog will appear:

   

   Re-Best Track Dialog

2. Click Re-Best. When this is selected, control returns to the Storm Window where you are prompted to click the new position on the map, or off the map to cancel. Designate the best position, based on available fix data and imagery. To choose the current position be sure to utilize ALL available data, including fixes, satellite and microwave imagery, QSCAT/ASCAT, and RADAR. Once a desired location is found, choose the position by single-clicking.

3. Click Apply.

4. Click OK.

5. After you click OK, a Confirmation dialog will pop up asking whether you want to update the position on the TC Web Page. Click Yes. The window will then close.

2.13 Importing Objective Aids

This procedure is adapted from JTWC ESOP 02.

After re-besting a ‘POOR’ or ‘Invest Only’, the Satellite Analyst must import the Objective Aids.

1. In the Storm Window, open the Aids menu from the Menu Bar and select Import New Objective Aid Data.

2. After importing the aid data, open the Aids menu again and select Create Objective Aids Forecasts, then select Run Objective Aids (4 min) from the flyout menu.

3. After a few moments a window will appear showing the objective aids. Close this window.

4. Open the Aids menu again and select Display Objective Aids to display the newly imported objective aids. See Section 3.5.A, Error: Reference source not foundfor more information on this feature.Error: Reference source not found

2.14 Deactivating a Storm

This procedure is adapted from JTWC ESOP 02.

To deactivate a storm from the NRL/FNMOC TC websites:

1. In the Storm Window, open the File menu from the Menu Bar and select Communicate With Other Site.

2. In the flyout menu, select Deactivate Storm on NRL/FNMOC TC Page.

3. Select .

4. Select Yes.

2.15 Deleting a Storm

This procedure is adapted from JTWC ESOP 02.

To delete a storm:

1. Open the Manage-Storms menu from the Menu Bar.

2. Select Delete a Storm… from the drop-down menu. The Delete a Storm dialog will be displayed:

   

   Delete a Storm Dialog

3. Choose a storm from the list, and click OK.

4. Click OK to confirm.

2.16 Saving ATCF Fix Data

This procedure is adapted from JTWC ESOP 02.

1. In the Storm Window, open the Fixes menu from the Menu Bar and select Fixes Editor from the drop-down menu. The Fixes Editor window will be displayed:

Fixes Editor Window

2. In the Menu Bar of the Fixes Editor Window, open the File menu and select Save from the drop-down menu.

2.17 Saving a Graphic to a File

This procedure is adapted from JTWC ESOP 02.

1. In the Storm Window, open the File menu and select Save Graphic. The ‘Select or enter the graphic filename’ dialog will open:

   

   Select or enter the graphic filename dialog

2. Enter the file name and location (each organization has its own conventions for these) and click Open to save the file.

2.18 Realtime Best Tracking

This procedure is adapted from JTWC TDO SOP 08.

The “working best track” is a best fit of position, intensity, and wind radii based on all fixes, imagery, and synoptic data available. The active storm track is continuously adjusted and smoothed as new information becomes available. Reanalysis of recent storm positions based on reliable new data provides a more representative storm track direction and speed vector and better estimates of storm intensity. The track direction and speed vector is critical to the proper utilization of numerical aids that use the past twelve to twenty-four hours of motion as the persistence input to their analyses. An accurate intensity trend is essential to proper initialization of the ST11 statistical intensity guidance. JTWC Policy is discussed in TDO SOP 08; what follows here deals with the procedures related to ATCF for real-time best tracking.

2.18.1 Updating the Working Best Track

1. Before updating the best track for an active system, confirm with the Satellite Analyst that all available fixes have been entered into ATCF. This includes satellite, synoptic, microwave, radar, and QUICKSCAT data.

2. Enter the best track data:

   1. From the map display window for an active system, open the Track menu and select Re-Best from the drop-down menu. The Re-Best Track Dialog will open:

      

      Re-Best Track Dialog

   2. In the Re-Best Track Dialog, click on the Re-Best button. Selecting this feature returns functional control to the map display window, where the TDO is prompted to designate the best position based on available fix data and imagery. Use all available data to choose the current position by clicking on the map display at the desired location. You can view imagery as an overlay to assist in this process by double-clicking the filename of the desired image in the Associated Imagery list box in the Re-Best Track Dialog. You can also call up imagery associated with prior best track positions by first selecting the desired best track time from the DTG of Position list.

   3. After the new position is designated in the Map Display, control returns to the Re-Best Track Dialog, where the TDO sets the maximum sustained Wind Speed, Development level (this typically updates automatically based on wind speed, but double-check that it is correct), and wind radii as appropriate based on available fixes and other data. Note: Select the best estimate intensity even for invest areas – the current intensity trend has a significant effect on the calculation of ST11 statistical intensity guidance.

3. Continually adjust. Along with setting the current position, the TDO should continually adjust previous track positions, intensity, and wind radii to ensure values of these parameters are as accurate as possible. Below are some tools available to assist in this effort:

   1. List Working Best Track. From the Storm Window, open the Track menu and select List Working Best Track. A list of historical best track positions, intensities, and wind radii for the current system of interest will appear. Focus on track speed and intensity trends – ensure that large jumps in speed or changes in intensity from one period to another can be justified by the available data.

      

      List Working Best Track Display

   2. Graph Fix Intensity vs Time: From the Storm Window, open the Track menu and select Graph Fix Intensity vs Time. A graph of intensities associated with all available fixes will appear (CI for Dvorak fixes), along with a red line showing best track intensities. Viewing this graph can help the TDO spot potentially misrepresentative trends in the data.

      

      Graph Window Showing Fix Intensity vs Time

4. Running Objective Aids: After selecting the best track position and updating associated parameters, the TDO must import and run objective aids. Running aids spurs production of the BAM and WBAR model trackers, initiates the active area on the CIRA RAMMB TC page ( http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc%5FRealtime/) and the CIMSS AMSU temperature sounding page (http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu/), etc. From the Storm Window, open the Aids menu and select Import New Objective Aid Data. Once this process is complete, open the Aids menu again and select Create Obj Aid Forecasts. In the flyout menu that appears, select Run Objective Aids. A text window will appear when the process is complete, showing what aids were run. Close this window.

5. Using the Objective Best Track Function: ATCF can automatically analyze a best fit track based on available unflagged fixes. The objective best track (OBT) routine hedges its position estimates based on position fix confidence as determined and set by the person entering the fix (typically the Satellite Analyst). The OBT can help the TDO to identify areas where the working best track differs significantly from an objective, mathematically-based fit to available fix data. However, the most accurate working best track solution will usually deviate from the OBT track since some fixes and imagery provide clear-cut presentations of the actual storm position.

   1. To create the objective best track, start by opening the Track menu from the Storm Window, selecting Objective Best Track from the drop-down menu, and selecting Make Objective Best Track from the flyout menu that appears. The OBT will appear in the Storm Window, and a text window will be displayed providing notification of the fixes used to create the OBT. Note: Fixes must be displayed on the map display in order for the Make Objective Best Track function to run.

   2. Flagging fixes: In order to remove fixes from consideration by the watch and the OBT routine, the TDO should flag errant fixes. Fixes are typically considered errant, and thus worthy of flagging, when a high-confidence working best track lies outside the fix confidence circle. From the Storm Window, open the Fixes menu and select Flag Fixes…. Control shifts to the Map Display window, where you can click on the fix you would like to flag. A Flag Fixes dialog will also appear to allow you to enter the reason(s) for flagging the fix.

      

      Flag Fixes Dialog

6. Log Maintenance: Certain comments regarding working best track efforts should be added to the ATCF storm log. To access the ATCF log from the current system’s Storm Window, open the Track menu from the Menu Bar and select Log Comments…. Note: The ATCF log can also be accessed through the Fixes and Aids menus.

   TDOs should always log the fixes they’ve flagged, including the reason for flagging. The on-watch TDO is also encouraged to log very high confidence best track position and intensity confidence and the basis for such high confidence. Doing so will send a strong signal to following TDOs and the post-storm best track officer that a position/intensity should be maintained unless solid evidence to refute the position/intensity is available. After you have entered input into the ATCF log, save the file by clicking on the disk icon or by selecting File and Save from the menu bar.

2.18.2 Periodically Check Decks for Errors

To ensure that the ATCF data files do not become corrupted and unusable, the TDO should perform periodic checks of these files.

1. Check Fix Data: From the Storm Window, open the Fixes menu and select Check Fix Data…. A text window will be displayed showing the results:

   

   Check Fix Data Output

   If any errors are found with manual fixes (i.e. problems with CIMSS and CIRA automated fixes note included) notify the SATOPS QC coordinator for correction.

2. Check Best Track Data: From the Storm Window, open the Track menu in the Menu Bar and select Check Best Track Data…. A text window will be displayed showing the results. If any errors are found, notify JTOPS.

3. Check Objective Aid Data: From the Storm Window, open the Aids menu from the Menu Bar and select Check Objective Aid Data…. A text window will be displayed showing the results:

   

   Check Objective Aids Data Results

   If any errors are found, notify Techniques Development for resolution. However, the following error type, if found, can be disregarded:

   First Aid in DTG is not CARQ or WRNG. Line 1 in awp092005.dat

   WP, 09, 2005073000, 71, JNGP, 0, 74N, 1378E, 15, 0, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0,

2.19 Bogusing

This section provides instructions, based on JTWC SOP 11, on creating and submitting synthetic observations (bogus) to numerical model guidance.

Certain numerical models do not resolve tropical cyclones adequately and require synthetic observations in order to generate a vortex tracker. These synthetic observations are made available to the models through the bogus process. One of the “bogused” model trackers, GFDN, will not be available for use in the forecast process unless the TDO prepares and submits a bogus. This section shows how to create and transmit a bogus using ATCF, and follow up afterward.

1. To start the process of creating a bogus, open the Track menu from the Menu Bar of the Storm Window, click on Bogus, and select Create the TC Bogus… from the flyout menu as shown below:

   

   Selecting Create the TC Bogus

2. The Prepare Compute Data dialog box will then be displayed:

   

   Prepare Compute Data Dialog

   There are 15 fields in the bogus process:

   1. In the Date-Time-Group box, enter the date-time-group associated with the most recent synoptic best track time (ending in 00, 06,12, or 18). This field takes the form of YYYYMMDDHH, e.g. 2010032606.

   2. The Lat column of the position list, in the Current line, should now show the latitude of the selected best track position. This typically requires no adjustment, but should be checked, as should the hemisphere radio button.

   3. The Lon column of the position list, in the Current line, should now show the longitude of the selected best track position. This typically requires no adjustment, but should be checked, as should the hemisphere radio button.

   4. The box in the Max Wind (kt) column in the Current row should show the intensity chosen in the best track position dialog. Check for accuracy.

   5. The box in the Dir (deg) column in the Current row should show the vector direction between the previous best track position and the current position.

   6. The Spd (kt) column in the Current row should show the speed (vector magnitude) between the previous and current best track positions.

   7. The Eye Diameter box should be set when there is an eye present in satellite imagery; if no eye is present, set this value to 0.

   8. The Max Wind Radius entry should be set to the radius of maximum winds; use the drop-down to select the radius.

   9. In the Vertical Extent of Circulation box, click the down arrow and select the vertical development (shallow, medium, or deep) for the current storm. This is also used as a proxy for the steering level of the system. Fully developed systems will typically be deep (>400 mb).

   10. In the Central Pressure box, click the down arrow and select the central pressure of the system. This is suggested by the Max Winds chosen using a wind-pressure relationship.

   11. In the Outermost Closed Isobar box, select the pressure associated with the horizontal extent of the circulation, beyond which the effects of the barotropic flow should not be felt.

   12. In the Radius Outermost Closed Isobar box, enter the horizontal distance from the center to the Outermost Closed Isobar above.

   13. In the 34 KT winds, 50 KT winds, and 64 KT winds rows, enter the extent in each quadrant (NE, SE, NW, SW) of the relevant winds.

3. Set the Bogus Priority. After filling out the Prepare Compute Data dialog and clicking its OK button to create the bogus itself, you need to set the bogus priority. Open the Track menu, select Bogus, and select GFDN priority from the flyout menu. Another flyout menu will allow you to select the priority. Priority is based on the current storm’s “operational precedence.” For example, designate storms threatening assets with a higher priority. No two invest/storm boguses may share the same priority. The GFDN model will ingest higher priority bogus data first and, in the event of a computer problem or an unusually busy multi-storm and invest situation, will only be able to accept the highest priority boguses.

4. Send the bogus. After the steps above are complete, open the Track menu, select Bogus, and select Send the TC Bogus… from the flyout menu. This will send the bogus information to FNMOC for ingestion into the NOGAPS and GFDN models and for further distribution to other agencies that use the data.

5. Follow up on submission of the bogus. A few hours after the bogus has been submitted, expect to receive a GFDN Bogus Confirmation in the TDO inbox. This message confirms arrival of the bogus at FNMOC. However this message does not indicate whether the bogus information reached other agencies. To locate the GFDN tracker generated as a result of bogus submission, logon to the FNMOC BFT server and search for “GFDN.”

2.20 5-Day Objective Aids Graphic

This section provides instructions, adapted from JTWC SOP 12, for using ATCF to prepare and post the 5-day objective aids graphic. JTWC creates 5-day aids graphics for FAIR areas or better and posts them to NIPRNET, SIPRNET, and PZAL. To create the 5-day objective aids graphic:

1. Open the appropriate storm window and display geography labels with dots (in the Sidebar, select geo. Labels – dots).

2. Display objective aids representative of the current guidance (open the Aids menu from the Menu Bar and select Display Objective Aids……, then select the DTG and profile from the Objective Aids dialog). For JTWC, this generally means the standard suite of aids that make up the CONW profile. Only use BAMs for the first couple of warnings or if no dynamic aids are available.

3. Prepare the aids graphic for posting to the web. Open the Aids menu from the Menu Bar and select Import New Objective Aid Data. Then open the Aids menu again and select Create Objective Aid Forecasts and Run Objective Aids (4 min) from the flyout menu. Finally, open the Aids menu again and select Display Objective Aids… and select the aids to display from the Objective Aids dialog. The figure below shows what the 5-Day Objective Aids graphic should look like:

   

   5-Day Objective Aids Graphic

4. Open the File menu in the Menu Bar and select Save Graphic. This opens the “Select or enter the graphic filename” dialog:

   

   Select or enter the graphic filename Dialog

5. Use JAMS (back-up is the ‘5-Day Aids Upload Tool’) to post 5-Day Objective Aids graphic to the NIPRNET and SIPRNET 5-Day Aids websites, as well as to PZAL.

2.21 Tropical Cyclone Formation Alerts (TCFAs)

This section is adapted from JTWC SOP 14 and deals with the use of ATCF for issuing a TCFA, displaying the TCFA area, creating and sending the TCFA message, and creating the TCFA graphic.

2.21.1 Issuing a TCFA and Creating and Sending the TCFA Graphic

The TDO produces and distributes a message detailing the location and meteorological reasoning for all TCFAs. The TCFA valid period is 24 hours. A TCFA never expires, but is cancelled, reissued, or superseded by the first warning based on the disturbance.

1. Issuing a TCFA: When a TCFA is warranted, the TDO must decide whether the forecast area will be a circle or a box. This is based on the speed of the system and the size of the objective aids envelope. For example, a circular area is appropriate if systems are moving slowly within weak steering flow. For systems moving faster, a rectangular area would be more appropriate. The length of the box should be determined by the forecast speed and the 24 hour objective aids forecasts. The width of the box should be determined by the TDO’s confidence in the objective aids, taking into account the spread over 24 hours.

   1. Make the TCFA area: (Note: You must have an Invest area started before beginning this process; see Section 2.2 Starting a Storm for details. Use select storm in the Sidebar to select the invest area for the TCFA). Open the Warnings/TCFAs menu from the Menu Bar and hover the cursor over Make TCFA Area -- a flyout menu will present the option of a circular (Circle) or rectangular (Box) area.

      

      Selecting the TCFA Area Type

   2. For a rectangular area: Select Box…. This will open the TCFA Box Creation dialog shown below. Use the slider at the bottom to set the distance from the center line to the edge of the box. Then click on the map, where a prompt will direct you to click and drag the mouse to designate the center line of the box. When you release the mouse, the information at the top of the dialog will be filled in. Click the OK button to close the dialog. Proceed to step 2 below.

      

      TCFA Box Creation Dialog

   3. For a circular area: Select Circle… and the TCFA Circle Creation dialog shown below will be displayed. In the dialog, set the radius of the circle, and then click on the map to establish the center point. The information at the top of the dialog will then be filled in. Click the OK button to exit the dialog.

      

      TCFA Circle Creation Dialog

2. Displaying the TCFA area: The TCFA area should now be displayed on the map. If for any reason it isn’t, you can re-display it by opening the Storm Window for the invest area and selecting Display TCFA Area from the Warnings/TCFAs menu.

3. Create the TCFA Message: With the TCFA warning area displayed, open the Warnings/TCFAs menu from the Menu Bar and select Create TCFA Message…. The Create a TCFA Message dialog will be displayed as shown below.

   

   Create a TCFA Message Dialog

   Enter the following:

   1. For WT number ensure the lowest unused number is entered.

   2. MANOP DTG to the nearest ½ hour.

   3. Message DTG: MANOP DTG – 9 minutes.

   4. Estimated Winds: Ensure you don’t make winds too high (e.g. 20 to 25 knots would merit a warning vice a TCFA; typically winds for a TCFA are 15-20 knots in WESTPAC and 25-30 knots elsewhere.)

   5. Location method(s) : Check one or more of the methods and then enter the DTG of most recent location data as specified.

   6. Circulation Center Source: Indicate how the circulation center was determined.

   7. Storm System Direction: Choose the appropriate value from the drop-down list.

   8. Storm System Speed: Enter the appropriate value.

   9. Alert valid until: MANOP DTG + 24 hours.

   10. Remarks…: Enter any remarks needed (see SOP 15 for further guidance).

   11. Signature Line…: Enter the TDO’s signature.

4. Create the TCFA Graphic. Begin by zooming in on the TCFA area. Include geography if available (select geo. Labels – dots in the Sidebar).

   1. Create the TCFA Label: Open the Graphic menu and select Create TCFA Label. A text box will appear allowing you to enter the label, which will then appear on the map window as shown below. Ensure you check the MANOP DTG since ATCF will default to the nearest hour, and change manually if needed. Use the Position button to position the label by dragging it in the map window. Click the Done button when the label is correct and correctly positioned.

      

      Creating the TCFA Label

   2. Mark the circulation with a “C”. Open the Graphic menu from the Menu Bar and select Chart and Storm Titles…. This will open the Storm Title/Chart Title Dialog shown below. In the Enter Text box, enter a C as shown in the example.

      

      Storm Title/Chart Title Dialog

      Click on the Font Selection… button and select the desired font from the Font Selection dialog:

      

      Font Selection Dialog

      Select the desired font and size (suggest Nimbus font, 45-50 point) and click the OK button to return to the Font Selection dialog. Then click on the Color… button to display the Text Color Dialog:

      

      Text Color Dialog

      Select a red color and click on OK to return to the Storm Title/Chart Title dialog. Click on the Position Text button and the focus will shift to the Storm Window, where you will be prompted to click at the lower left corner of the place you want to put the “C”. Doing so will display the “C” and return you to the Storm Title/Chart Title dialog, where you can click on the OK button to exit. The completed TCFA graphic should look something like this:

      

      Completed TCFA Graphic

5. Send the graphic: Open the File menu from the Menu Bar and select Communicate With Other Site, then Send Warning/Graphic to Homepage, JMV, NRL, FNMOC from the flyout menu.

2.21.2 Re-issuing a TCFA

No additional steps are necessary when re-issuing a TCFA. The graphic is updated and a new MANOP is required in the graphic’s text box. A TCFA will be re-issued if:

1. The circulation center moves outside the TCFA box or circle before a warning is issued or the TCFA expires, or

2. The TCFA is due to expire and the circulation center still has good potential to develop into a tropical cyclone.

2.21.3 Cancelling a TCFA

Writing Canceled across the graphic (see example below) is required when a TCFA is cancelled. JTWC SOP 15 should be consulted for the text requirements for cancelling a TCFA at JTWC.

Cancelled TCFA Graphic

A TCFA is cancelled once the tropical disturbance no longer poses the threat of becoming a significant tropical cyclone. Do not cancel a TCFA within its 24 hour valid period unless it can be downgraded to a “POOR” on the appropriate significant tropical weather advisory bulletin. Ensure ATCF is used to generate the cancellation message.

1. When cancelling a TCFA, a cancelled TCFA graphic will need to be communicated/sent to the TC web pages. If you do not have the original TCFA graphic opened in ATCF, you will need to recreate the graphic BEFORE canceling the TCFA in ATCF (see section D.1. above for details on creating the TCFA graphic). If you fail to do so, you will not be able to display the TCFA box and label once the TCFA is canceled in ATCF.

2. The TCFA cancellation function is within the “Create TCFA Message” function of ATCF. With the TCFA displayed in the Storm Window, open the Warnings/TCFAs menu and select Create TCFA Message…. A small dialog will pop up telling you that the storm is already in TCFA state. Click Continue to proceed. The next dialog asks you whether the TCFA is to be corrected, cancelled, or re-issued. Click Cancelled. You will be returned to the Create a TCFA Message dialog – follow the procedures for your location regarding the guidance for cancelling a TCFA (at JTWC, see SOP 15).

2.22 Forecasting

This section discusses the use of ATCF to aid the forecasting process and is adapted in part from JTWC SOP 18 and an older ATCF System User’s Guide.

The forecast process is a necessary precursor to the development of warnings and the warning and ship avoidance graphics. The basic steps are 1) Forecast Track, 2) Forecast Intensity, and 3) Forecast Wind Radii. Each of these is discussed in a separate section below.

2.22.1 Track Forecasting

1. To begin forecasting a storm track, with the Storm Window open, open the Track menu and select Forecast Track.... This opens the Forecast Track dialog, shown below:

   

   Forecast Track Dialog

   If the currently available objective aids are not displayed in the Storm Window, aids may be manually selected by utilizing the Other Aids… button in the dialog. This

   

   Objective Aids Dialog

   opens the Objective Aids dialog which can be used to select the aids to display. The flow in this dialog seems to work best if done in this order:

   1. Select the DTG in the Select DTG(s) list box.

   2. Select the profile in the Select profile list box. For JTWC, CONW is usually used. Aids associated with the profile should be highlighted in the Select Objective Aids list box. If other aids are desired, hold down the Ctrl key while clicking on each additional aid desired.

   3. Click the desired tau button. The selected aids will then be displayed in the Storm Window. You can use the check boxes at the bottom, together with the Apply button, to toggle on or off various additional features in the display.

   4. Click OK when the desired aids are displayed. This will return you to the Forecast Track dialog.

2. In the Forecast Track dialog, with objective aids displayed, select the next available TAU (forecast time); when beginning a forecast this would be 12. The Storm Window will then show the objective aids truncated to the 12 hour forecast time period. By default, the display will show both the aid designator (e.g. NGPI, WBAI, etc) and the forecast tau selected; you can turn off the tau labels for clarity (since all of the aid positions are for the same tau) by toggling the Tau labels selection in the dialog. The figure below shows the display for tau 12 with tau labels turned off:

   

   Track Forecasting Display for Tau 12, Tau labels Off

   The circles displayed around the TAU 12 positions are the Goerss Probability Consensus Error (GPCE Probability) circle, displaying the 70% confidence circle. The example shows both the GPCE Probability circle and the GPCE-AX (GPCE Along and Cross Track) ellipse (GPCE-AX gives separate radii for along-track and cross-track probabilities). The GPCE probability indicates that there is a 70% probability that the observed best track will fall within that circle at the given TAU. You can toggle the GPCE circles on and off using the GPCE Prob., GPCE Climatology, and GPCE-AXcheckboxes. Based on the forecast reasoning and the overall synoptics, click on the map to select the forecast position. The forecast position chosen (latitude and longitude), forecast direction of movement, and forecast speed of movement will populate for each forecast TAU as its location is placed on the map.

3. Repeat the above process for the remaining required TAUs (note that the different basins have different forecast length requirements and guidelines).The final forecast track will look similar to the graphic below.

   

   Example of Final Forecast Track

2.22.2 Intensity Forecasting

To forecast storm intensity in ATCF:

1. In the Storm Window, with the storm to be forecasted selected, open the Forecast menu and select Forecast Intensity…. This will open the Intensity Forecast dialog. This dialog is relatively simple to use, with drop-down menus for the intensity. You don’t need to change the gusts; these are set and are based on the maximum sustained wind. The available intensity guidance from the aids is displayed for your consideration.

   

   Intensity Forecast Dialog

   If you click on the View Intensity Graph / Make Forecast button, you will be able to select and graph intensity aids as desired. You will be presented with an Objective Aids Time Intensity dialog to allow you to choose the aids to be included in the graph:

   

   Objective Aids Time Intensity Dialog

   And the results will be displayed graphically:

   

   Objective Aid Time Intensity Graph

   This graph is interactive – you can click on the graph to select the intensity for a forecast period.

2.22.3 Forecasting Wind Radii

To use ATCF for forecasting wind radii:

1. In the Storm Window with the storm to be forecasted selected, open the Forecast menu from the Menu Bar and select Forecast Wind Radii…. The Forecast Wind Radii dialog will be displayed. The text box at the bottom shows the current forecast. The one above it presents available guidance, such as the DeMaria Radii CLIPER (DRCL) radii. You can use the buttons and pull-down boxes at the top to select the TAU, and for each of the radii specify whether the forecast is by complete circle or quadrant, and select the radii. The Display Options button lets you choose what will be displayed in the Storm Window. The Use DRCL – Current TAU button allows you to view the DRCL radii for guidance. The Use Previous TAU button populates the current TAU with the values from the previous TAU (e.g. repeat the TAU 24 values as the TAU 36 forecast). The Delete Radii button clears the values from the current TAU.

   

   Forecast Wind Radii Dialog

2. You can also use the Graph/Select radii (radial graph) button for the appropriate TAU to view guidance and select wind radii graphically. Each of the buttons opens an interactive graph window like the one shown below. The arrow in the window shows the storm’s current direction and speed of movement. The dots show the forecast guidance (in the example, the DRCL radii). You can click in any quadrant to select the wind radius in that quadrant. The Menu Bar at the top contains selections for the quadrant, TAU, and radius being forecasted, and for the scale of the display. When you’ve completed your selections, open the File menu and select Exit. Your selections will then be displayed in the Forecast Wind Radius Dialog. Click on the OK button to exit.

   

   Graph/Select Wind Radii Display

2.22.4 Ship Avoidance Area

Another function in the Forecast menu computes the Ship Avoidance Area. This is based on the 5-year running mean of forecast position errors for tropical cyclones in the basin. Selecting this option opens a dialog allowing you to select the period for which the Ship Avoidance Area will be computed – the default of 000-024 is generally used. Click OK to display the area:

Ship Avoidance Area (dashed outline)

2.22.5 Error Swath

The Error Swath function, selectable from the Forecast menu, produces a hatched area similar to the Ship Avoidance Area. It is also based on the 5-year running mean of forecast position errors for tropical cyclones in the basin.

2.23 Warnings and Warning Graphics

This section deals with the use of ATCF in producing warnings and warning graphics, and is adapted from JTWC SOP 18 and the ATCF System User’s Guide (Version 4.4.2).

The primary ATCF functions used in creating warnings and warning graphics are Create Warning Message, Compute CPAs, and Compute Bearing/Distance to Forecast in the Warnings/TCFAs menu, and Create Warning Graphic in the Graphic menu. Follow the following steps to generate a warning and the related warning graphic.

2.23.1 Create the Warning

1. Create the Warning Message. With the storm to be warned on selected and displayed in the Storm Window, open the Warnings/TCFAs menu in the Menu Bar and select Create Warning Message…. This will display the Create a Warning Message dialog:

   

   Create a Warning Message Dialog

   1. Verify the correct number in the Warning Number box.

   2. Select Amended/Corrected/Relocated Status as appropriate from the drop-down list.

   3. Position Accuracy should be obtained from the Satellite Analyst.

   4. Select the appropriate option for Position based on. Note that Eye Fixed does not include a banding eye.

   5. Under Location method(s) select the appropriate check boxes to indicate additional data used to obtain the position.

   6. Warning Frequency is set at 6 hours by default; you will need to change this if you go to 12-hourly warnings.

   7. Click on the Storm State… button to display the Storm State dialog:

      

      Storm State Dialog

      Select the appropriate TAU and Storm state. The results are shown in the text box at the bottom. Click OK to close the dialog and proceed.

   8. Past 6-hour direction and Past 6-hour speed should already be filled in from the position information. Check to ensure that they are correct.

   9. Remarks… opens a text entry box in which you can insert any pertinent remarks.

   10. Signature opens a dialog in which you can enter your site-specific signature.

   11. Geography Reference allows you to select from a list that shows the storm’s current proximity to various geographic landmarks.

   12. Max significant wave height should be obtained from the FDO, Winds and Waves Forecaster (will need current intensity, motion, and previous wave height used).

   13. Check the Final warning for this system… checkbox only if you are issuing the final warning.

   14. In the Initials entry box, enter the TDO’s initials.

   15. Click OK to close the dialog.

2. Compute CPAs. Begin by opening the Warnings/TCFAs menu from the Menu Bar and selecting Compute CPAs…. This will open the CPAs dialog:

   

   CPAs Dialog

   1. Click on the Use Maximum Distance button. The CPAs text file will be displayed in a text window:

      

      CPAs File Display

      Open the File menu and select Exit to close the window.

   2. Click on the OK button in the CPAs dialog.

3. Compute Bearing/Distance to Forecast. Begin by opening the Warnings/TCFAs menu from the Menu Bar and selecting Compute Bearing/Distance to Forecast…. This opens the Bearing/Distance to Forecast dialog:

   

   Bearing/Distance to Forecast Dialog

   1. Click on the Use Maximum Distance button. The Bearing/Distance file will be displayed in a text window:

      

      Bearing and Distance to Forecast Track Display

   2. In the text window, open the File menu and select Exit to close the window.

   3. In the Bearing/Distance to Forecast dialog, click the Done button to exit.

2.23.2 Create the Warning Graphic

To create the warning graphic:

1. Snap the map display to the warning area. Open the Graphic menu from the Menu Bar and select Snap to warning area. This zooms the storm window in to the area around your forecast, within approximately 10 degrees from each forecast point.

2. Display the forecast track. From the Graphic menu, select Display Forecast Track.

3. Display Forecast Track and Wind Radii. From the Graphic menu, select Display Forecast Track and Wind Radii.

4. Display the Error Swath. From the Graphic menu, select Display Error Swath. The Error Swath Dialog will be displayed:

   

   Error Swath Dialog

   In general, the Apply Convex Hull option should not be selected. Only use the convex hull when the error swath is not representative of the track uncertainty. Click on the OK button to close the dialog and display the error swath:

   

   Storm Window Showing Track, Wind Radii, and Error Swath

5. Edit and position the warning label. From the Graphic menu, select Warning Label…. This will open the Warning Label dialog shown below. If necessary, you can add additional information (such as “*** FINAL WARNING ***”or “*** RELOCATED ***”) as necessary by clicking within the text box. Click on the Position button to position the label within the storm window – control will be transferred to that window and you can click anywhere to designate where the upper left corner of the label will be placed. Click Done in the Warning Label dialog when complete.

   

   Warning Label Dialog

6. Create and position the CPA label. From the Graphic menu, select CPA Label…. This opens the CPA Label dialog:

   

   CPA Label Dialog

   You can edit within the text box to pare out superfluous information to save room. Also, don’t include this label if no CPAs are generated. Click Position to transfer control to the Storm Window, where you can click to position the upper right corner of the label. If you’re unhappy with the position, click Delete to delete the label and try again. Click Done when finished to exit the dialog.

7. Edit and position the bearing/distance label. From the Graphic menu, select Bearing/Distance Label… to open the Bearing/Distance Label dialog:

   

   Bearing/Distance Label Dialog

   You can edit within the text box to pare out superfluous information to save room. Also, don’t include this label if no CPAs are generated. Click Position to transfer control to the Storm Window, where you can click to position the upper right corner of the label. If you’re unhappy with the position, click Delete to delete the label and try again. Click Done when finished to exit the dialog.

8. As an alternative to steps 5-7 above, you can create a single label that combines the Warning, CPA, and Bearing/Distance information. From the Graphic menu, select Combined Warning, CPA, and Bearing/Distance Label…. This opens the Warning Label dialog; if you scroll down you will see that the CPA and Bearing/Distance information are included. Note that if no CPA or Bearing/Distance information was generated, you will need to erase these manually from the label graphic or just display the Warning label itself (per step 5 above). You can also manually edit the label before placing it to remove superfluous information. Click Position to transfer control to the Storm Window, where you can click to position the upper right corner of the label. If you’re unhappy with the position, click Delete to delete the label and try again. Click Done when finished to exit the dialog.

9. Create and position the warning legend. From the Graphic menu, select Warning Legend…. This opens the Warning Legend dialog:

   

   Warning Legend Dialog

   Click the Position button to position the legend in the storm window. The warning legend is normally placed at the bottom right of the graphic in the whitespace, but may be placed elsewhere if there is no room. Click in the storm window where you want the upper right corner to be placed. If you don’t like the final placement, click on Delete to delete the label and try again. Click Done when finished to close the dialog.

10. Label the forecast. From the Graphic menu, select Label forecast… to open the Forecast Label Dialog:

    

    Forecast Label Dialog

    For each TAU, click the appropriate TAU, then click Make Label. The focus then shifts to the Storm Window, where the cursor is attached to the end of a line leading to the position at that TAU. Click and hold the left mouse button to drag the end of the line to where you want the label to be placed, then let go of the mouse button. If unhappy with the placement, click Delete Label and try again. Otherwise, repeat until all TAUS are completed. Ensure that the labels don’t cover geography labels or any forecast information, and that placement is neat and orderly. Click OK when done.

11. Display geography labels with dots. Choose the Geography Labels with Dots option from the Graphic menu.

12. (Optional) The High Resolution Map option in the Graphic menu is not typically used for any official graphics but may be used to view smaller islands. This can be useful when only small scale land features exist within the warning graphic area. The High Resolution Map may be somewhat slow to render on the screen.

    The finished warning graphic should look like the one below:

    

    Completed Warning Graphic

13. Save the warning graphic. From the File menu, select Save Graphic. A dialog will pop up allowing you to specify a file name and location.

2.23.3 Create the Ship Avoidance Area Graphic

The steps in this section take you through the process of creating the Ship Avoidance Area graphic, assuming that you have already created and saved the Warning Graphic (see Section 2.23.2, above). To create the Ship Avoidance Area graphic:

1. Clear the error swath. There are two ways do clear the error swath from the graphic:

   1. In the Sidebar, scroll down to error swath and click on it. This is a toggle; clicking on it again will re-display the error swath.

   2. Open the Tools menu from the Menu Bar and select Select Overlays to Erase, then select Ship Avoidance Area Error Swath from the flyout menu.

2. From the Graphic menu in the Menu Bar, select Display Avoidance Area. The Ship Avoidance Area dialog will be displayed:

   

   Ship Avoidance Area Dialog

   In general, leave the default settings (shown) on and click the OK button to close the dialog and display the avoidance area. This is an area with a dashed outline.

3. The finished product should look something like this:

   

   Ship Avoidance Area Graphic

4. Save the Ship Avoidance Area graphic. From the File menu, select Save Graphic. A dialog will pop up allowing you to specify a file name and location.

2.23.4 Create the Wind Probability Products

The Wind Probability products are created after the warning is complete. To begin, you need to have a storm window open and display the latest forecast track and geography labels with dots. No labels or wind radii should be displayed. To create the wind probability products:

1. From the Graphic menu, select Display Cumulative Wind Probs, then select 34kt from the flyout menu. This will open the GRIB Data dialog:

   

   GRIB Data Dialog

   Select the ‘120_wnd_prblty’ data. This provides the largest swath and is used mainly to ensure the window is large enough. Also note that the GRIB data may not be available until approximately 5-10 minutes after you create the warning message.

2. Using the Zoom function (either from the Tools menu or the Sidebar), re-size the window so that you create a rectangular box covering the entire wind probability swath. This is done to ensure that there is not a lot of white space when the product loops on the web page.

3. From the Graphic menu in the Menu Bar, select Save 34, 50, 64kt Wind Probs Graphic to File. This will create the remainder of the wind probability display and save all of the wind probabilities to the NIPRnet and SIPRnet web pages.